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Migration Risk Simulator

Test the "Canary Squad" hypothesis with your own data. Run 1,000+ project iterations in seconds to visualize the probability of success.

Simulation Parameters

Components to Migrate 50
Base Days per Component 3
Defect Probability (%) 30%
Avg. Fix Time (Days) 5
Daily Cost per Squad ($) $2,000
Avg. Duration Saved
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Canary vs. Single Squad
Cost Difference
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Total Project Budget
95% Confidence Limit
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Worst Case Scenario (Time)

Project Duration Probability

Histogram showing the distribution of project completion times across 1,000 simulations.

Risk Analysis: Cost vs. Time

Each dot represents one simulation outcome. Notice the "Long Tail" of risk in the Single Squad model.

How this works

This simulator uses the Monte Carlo method. It runs the migration project 1,000 times virtually. For every single component (app/server), it rolls a digital die based on your "Defect Probability" to see if a problem occurs.

Single Squad (Grey): If a defect hits, the squad stops to fix it. This adds to the critical path.
Canary Squad (Blue): A small squad runs ahead. They hit the defect and fix it. The main squad (following behind) uses the fix immediately, avoiding the delay, but you pay for two squads.